Ranking Rebuilding NFL Teams' Chances of Making 2024 Playoffs (2024)

Every year, NFL teams change direction with a new coaching staff, front office or completely clean house from top to bottom. Typically, those clubs need more than a year to see positive results, though some rebuilding squads make an immediate leap to playoff contention.

Last offseason, the Houston Texans hired a first-time head coach in DeMeco Ryans, and they made the playoffs as 2023 AFC South champions.

Is there a team that can do what the Texans did last season?

We'll rank all eight rebuilding teams that either hired a new head coach or general manager this offseason and rank them based on each club's projected playoff chances.

Every team's playoff chances are based on its roster makeup, track record of its coaching staff and strength of schedule.

The New England Patriots are at the bottom of the rankings because of unknowns across their roster, specifically on offense, and the strength of their division and conference.

The Patriots selected quarterback Drake Maye with the No. 3 overall pick in the 2024 draft, and he may develop into a franchise player.

For now, though, he's third on the depth chart behind journeyman backup Jacoby Brissett and Bailey Zappe.

Maye could make a strong impression throughout the Patriots' offseason program to claim the starting job, but he would play with a group of complementary and unproven wide receivers.

With a journeyman, backup or rookie signal-caller and a mediocre pass-catching group, their path to the playoffs in the AFC will be difficult.

Within its division, New England will battle two teams that made the playoffs last year in the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins. And the New York Jets should be a better squad with Aaron Rodgers set to return from a torn Achilles.

In 2023, all seven AFC playoff teams won at least 10 games, and that may be the case again in the upcoming term. The Patriots probably won't come close to winning 10 contests in 2024.

In our win-loss predictions following the 2024 schedule release, the Carolina Panthers had the worst record (3-14), but they're a spot above the New England Patriots (projected to go 4-13) because they play in a much weaker division.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the NFC South title with fewer than 10 victories for the 2022 and 2023 seasons.

Perhaps the division leader will need a win or two more for the crown in the upcoming campaign, but it's more likely to see an under-the-radar team win the NFC South than the AFC East.

The Panthers hired head coach Dave Canales, who was the Buccaneers offensive coordinator last season.

Canales helped quarterback Baker Mayfield post career passing numbers in his first Pro Bowl campaign. The offensive-minded lead skipper could have a positive impact on second-year signal-caller Bryce Young.

The Alabama product has a couple of new wide receivers in Diontae Johnson and rookie first-rounder Xavier Legette, which may help his development. Carolina also signed guards Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis to shore up the offensive line.

However, the Panthers have a major question mark at left tackle. In 2023, Ikem Ekwonu allowed 11 sacks and committed 12 penalties, per Pro Football Focus.

Rookie second-round running back Jonathon Brooks could have a slow ramp-up from ACL surgery, which may delay the development of Carolina's ground game. Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders both averaged fewer than 3.9 yards per carry last season.

Moreover, Carolina will likely field several new starters on defense with a mostly different secondary from the previous year.

Even in the NFC South, the Panthers could quickly fall out of contention for the division title because of a slow start to the 2024 campaign, which is quite possible.

Based on their offseason moves, the Tennessee Titans clearly felt ready to compete for a playoff spot in a conference that features high-level or ascending quarterbacks such as Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rodgers, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa.

The Titans will go into the season with second-year signal-caller Will Levis, and they added wideouts Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd, running back Tony Pollard, center Lloyd Cushenberry III, rookie first-round offensive tackle JC Latham and cornerback L'Jarius Sneed.

The Titans will not lean on a relatively young roster like most rebuilding teams, which bumps them up over the New England Patriots and Carolina Panthers.

On the other hand, Tennessee has a first-time head coach in Brian Callahan, and Levis didn't throw a touchdown pass in five of his nine career starts and completed just 58.4 percent of his passes last season.

If the Kentucky product makes a second-year leap, the Titans could pose the biggest threat to the Houston Texans for the AFC South crown or get into the playoffs as a wild-card team.

That being said, the Titans' unproven tandem at head coach and quarterback leaves legitimate questions about the team's chances to make the playoffs.

The Washington Commanders slide into the rankings one spot above the Tennessee Titans because they have a coaching staff with a solid track record.

Head coach Dan Quinn quickly turned around the Atlanta Falcons in his first stint as an NFL lead skipper. After a 6-10 season in 2014, they went 8-8 in the following year under his direction. If seven teams had made the playoffs in both conferences back then, he would have had a playoff squad in his first year as the Falcons lead skipper.

Quinn could lead a quick turnaround in Washington as well.

The Commanders selected 2023 Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 draft. He'll have a solid receiver group that features Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and rookie third-rounder Luke McCaffrey.

Washington also signed pass-catching running back Austin Ekeler, who has hauled in 440 passes for 3,884 yards and 30 touchdowns in seven seasons.

The Commanders signed edge-rushers Dorance Armstrong and Dante Fowler Jr., who both played under Quinn when he served as the Dallas Cowboys defensive coordinator. Linebacker Bobby Wagner is also familiar with Quinn from their time with the Seattle Seahawks, and he's coming off a Pro Bowl campaign.

The Commanders offense could have a decent year with Daniels able to make plays with his arm and legs under experienced offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, who, as play-caller, helped quarterback Kyler Murray put together Pro Bowl campaigns in 2020 and 2021.

Though Quinn won't be calling the defensive plays in Washington, his familiarity with the roster personnel can help turn last year's worst defense in yards and points allowed into a formidable unit.

The Las Vegas Raiders have some offseason buzz with head coach Antonio Pierce, who led the team to a 5-4 record in an interim role last season. So, they have some continuity at a leadership position with a new general manager, Tom Telesco, taking over personnel decisions.

The Silver and Black also retained defensive coordinator Patrick Graham who fielded a unit that ranked ninth in scoring last season.

The Raiders made big splashes in free agency and the draft, signing defensive tackle Christian Wilkins and selecting tight end Brock Bowers, who's the only two-time John Mackey Award winner in college football history. Rookie second-rounder Jackson Powers-Johnson could start at guard in Week 1.

Las Vegas has most of the aspects of a playoff-ready squad, but the team has uncertainty at quarterback and a play-caller in Luke Getsy who has a lot to prove.

At this point of the offseason, the Raiders don't know who their starting quarterback will be for the season opener. Journeyman Gardner Minshew II and Aidan O'Connell, a 2023 fourth-rounder, will battle for the job.

Getsy has only been an NFL offensive coordinator for two seasons, both with the Chicago Bears, and his units finished 23rd and 18th in scoring. Of course, former Chicago quarterback Justin Fields bears some responsibility for those underwhelming offenses, though we cannot yet say Getsy is a quality play-caller, either.

The Raiders may just need average quarterback play to make the playoffs, but they fall outside of the top three in these rankings without a clear-cut starter at the position and an offensive coordinator with an uninspiring pro play-calling resume.

The Seattle Seahawks rank one spot ahead of the Las Vegas Raiders because of the quarterback position.

As noted, the Raiders don't have a sure-fire starter under center. Seahawks signal-caller Geno Smith has put together back-to-back Pro Bowl campaigns, throwing for 50 touchdowns and 20 interceptions over the last two years.

Seattle qualifies as a rebuilding squad in these rankings because of a head-coaching shakeup, though Mike Macdonald takes over a team that has finished 9-8 in consecutive seasons. He doesn't have to build up a basem*nt-dwelling roster from scratch.

The 36-year-old is a first-time head coach, but he's fielded a top-three scoring defense in two years as a coordinator. Offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb hasn't called plays on the NFL level, but Smith, a proven signal-caller, has an established rapport with wideouts DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Seattle's coaching staff has some unknowns in key positions. That being said, after two winning seasons, the team could be in the race for an NFC wild-card spot.

Unlike the teams that rank below them, the Los Angeles Chargers have a proven head coach, offensive coordinator and an experienced young quarterback who has Offensive Rookie of the Year and Pro Bowl accolades on his resume.

This offseason, the Chargers made the most notable hire on the head coaching carousel, bringing in Jim Harbaugh after he won a national championship as the Michigan Wolverines lead skipper.

Every team in these rankings has a new full-time head coach, and among them, Harbaugh has the best resume.

Like Washington Commanders lead skipper Dan Quinn, Harbaugh has led a team to the Super Bowl, though he has a far better win percentage on the pro level at 69.5 percent.

Harbaugh hired his defensive coordinator, Jesse Minters, from Michigan and offensive coordinator Greg Roman, who worked with him between 2011 and 2014 during their run with the San Francisco 49ers. Roman has fielded a top-12 scoring offense in seven out of 10 NFL seasons.

Herbert has a mediocre pass-catching group that includes Quentin Johnston coming off an underwhelming rookie year, part-time starter Joshua Palmer and rookie second-rounder Ladd McConkey, but the Chargers will likely operate a run-heavy offense under Roman who's done so in the past.

The Chargers offense will rely heavily upon the front line, which features multiple recent first-rounders in left tackle Rashawn Slater, left guard Zion Johnson and right tackle Joe Alt.

Running backs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards will need to stay healthy, too. Since 2021, they've missed 67 games combined.

Because of a lackluster pass-catching group, the Chargers offense could be limited, which is an issue in the AFC, but they have a favorable schedule. Los Angeles will face nine opponents (Las Vegas Raiders twice) that ranked 20th or worse in scoring last season.

The Chargers aren't ready to knock off the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West, but their head coaching upgrade over Brandon Staley will help them rack up wins against bottom-tier scoring teams on the schedule.

The Atlanta Falcons rank No. 1 because they have the best chance to win their division among the rebuilding teams.

They are in the NFC South, which has been one of the league's weakest divisions over the last two years. In 2022, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers won it with a sub-.500 record and claimed the 2023 division title with a 9-8 record.

The Falcons went 7-10 in three consecutive years with subpar quarterback play, and they addressed the position by signing four-time Pro Bowler Kirk Cousins and drafting Michael Penix Jr. with the eighth pick in the 2024 draft.

With a four-year, $180 million deal ($100 million guaranteed), Cousins will be the starter.

Before the 35-year-old tore his Achilles in Week 8 of the previous campaign, he was performing at a Pro Bowl level. In his last full season, he helped lead the Minnesota Vikings to a 13-4 record.

Outside the NFC South, the Falcons will face middling and bottom-tier teams like the Seattle Seahawks, Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos, Washington Commanders, New York Giants and Carolina Panthers, which sets them up with a favorable schedule.

Atlanta could win 10 or more games and claim the NFC South in the upcoming season.

NFL player contract details are courtesy of Over the Cap.

Maurice Moton covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @MoeMoton.